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Ford Motor Company NYSE
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br /Ford’s Ex Div Effective dates for dividends are Wednesdays in the last week of January, April, July, and October, and the Declaration dates are 3 weeks or 20 days prior. But since Ford effectively overpaid the dividend in 2014 as earnings dropped some 50 cents, they may restrain it a little or even hold it to the current 12.5 cents.
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br /Mark’s nickname in GM the GM dealer community was L’Naive. He is considered to be a very decent man that was not very good at his job. He was in the right place at the right time with Cadillac and then did a terrible job when he got the big job. He just didn’t know what to do next. He turned into a two trick pony; it was either zero for 60 or buy like an employee.
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br /His other problem was that he paid lip service to GM’s problems, but didn’t really get them. He would verbally acknowledge the problems and then say quot;well we must be doing something right, we sold 8 million cars.quot;
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br /He never really accepted that GM required core fundamental changes. That being said, he may do better in a more functional environment. He just wasn’t up to the challenges that GM faced.
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br /The real take away from this announcement is what it says about Ford’s opinion of the company’s performance in 2014. When you put a guy in Felice’s position it is not with the intention of him staying for 15 months. That Fields fired him after just 15 months tells you all you need to know about how he felt about Ford’s NA sales performance in 2014. Whether you like the fact that Ford hired an old Detroit retread for a key slot or not, you should be concerned that Ford is worried enough about its results to make the change after 15 months in the seat. They can spew all the happy talk they want about plant changeover and new models, this is a clear indication that folks in the Glass House think things are off the track in Dearborn.
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br /I was intrigued by the conversations earlier about the conversations regarding stock by backs and reverse splits. I think I agree with Tdot that so long as the dividend yield stays the same I would support it. It might reduce volatility. 4 billion shares is untenable. I was curious also if ford could take say, 7 billion dollars, bye 1/2 billion shares and instead of retiring the shares, include them as an asset on their balance sheet, pay yourself 250 million a year in dividends, and use that revenue as sort of a reverse DRIP to fuel a buy back program. I have no idea of the tax consequences. I assume it would be taxed at the corporate rate. Also any thoughts on Marchionne saying mega auto mergers are inevitable? I’ve been hearing that kind of talk since the mid 90s.
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br /Ivan And exactly where is Ford supposed to find $7B cash to buy a half billion shares? As of Oct 1st they had less than $8 billion in net cash after automotive debts, and they still had $15B in pension and other obligations apart from commercial debts to pay, which means they are currently about $7B underwater.
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br /Since they are already below the minimum $10B net cash after they say they need to operate the daily business, they have no free cash for share buybacks, and that means they would be forced to borrow the $7B to buy back those shares.
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br /No bank is going to loan Ford such money to burn on share repurchases they would demand the shares as security! Which means the shares cannot be liquidated, and the net effect is zero except now Ford is deeper in debt, and shareholder equity is wiped out. Which means the shares would be sold off at fire sale panic pricing shares could easily drop 50% practically overnight.
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br /All that happens just to please a few ignorant and short sighted shareholders who believe that a share buyback is the panacea for Ford’s share price ills. It is NOT. They fail to understand the dire consequences of such an action from a position of poverty. It has the effect of maxing out the credit cards and taking on a second and third mortgage, in order to add an indoor pool and tennis court, right before getting laid off. Yes it looks nice, but the probability of bankruptcy increases dramatically.
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br /Once Ford gets the debts paid off, and the pensions and other benefits squared away, then they are free to spend the excess cash on significant share buybacks. In fact, at that point they need to spend the cash on keeping shareholders happy, because a company with lots of cash and no debts or obligations to pay off naturally becomes the subject of a hostile takeover by leveraged takeover specialists. They make an offer, buy up the shares, take over the Company, transfer the cash to themselves, sell off the remaining valuable assets, and put the remains in bankruptcy liquidation.
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br /At this point, Ford is about $30B in debts and obligations away from being in the position to be vulnerable to a hostile takeover, and from spending their hard earned cash on share buybacks. Folks who are proponents of share buybacks need to understand this fundamental aspect of the business, and the consequences of what they are asking for.
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br /T Dot you can call me truth challenged and a troll, but I resent the GM loving comment. I think both companies are terrible long term holds.
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br /The reality as you know is that I have been correct on the stock every step of the way. If you think Ford dropped Felice into that job or that he accepted that job knowing that it would be for 15 months you are even more Naive then I thought. That is not the way the game is played at that level. The truth is that he got canned.
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br /You continually accept every Ford pronouncement at face value. The trick to figuring out the stock is to look at the real world issues a company faces and see if their projections make sense. It was painfully obvious to me going into 2014 that Ford was wrong on warranty costs and profitability in Europe. That was the basis of my call when the stock was at $18.00 that it would hit $15.00 long before it hit $20.00. You called me an idiot and a troll then as well, but of course it turned out that I was correct, because Ford’s guidance was off to the tune of 2 Billion dollars. Making money in the market is much more complex then taking managements predictions as Gospel and multiplying by ten.
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br /T Dot to fully illustrate my point about the dangers of accepting management declarations at face value I put together a collection of Ford announcements throughout 2014. For others on the board that can’t understand why Ford stock isn’t higher, here is the reason. Ford also lowered its guidance for 2015 results in Europe: It had previously expected to post a profit, but is now saying that a loss is likely.
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br /Some negative news in the short termFields said on Tuesday that Ford now expects its pre tax profit for 2014 to fall between $6 billion and $7 billion. That’s about $1.5 billion less than the expectations set during Ford’s second quarter earnings report in July.
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br /Why the change? There are a few factors at work. First, Ford expects quot;warranty and recall costsquot; to be about $1 billion higher than expected
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br /Ford also lowered its Europe guidance for 2015,
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br /Ford also sharply lowered its full year guidance for South America. In July, the company said it would break even or post a small loss for the year, but it’s now expecting to lose $1 billion.
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br /hares of Ford Motor Co. (F Analyst Report) plunged 7.5% on Sep 29 on the weak 2014 outlook revealed by the company. The automaker reduced the guidance for 2014 pre tax profit, excluding special items, to $6 billion from the previous guidance of $7 $8 billion.
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br /Originally, Ford expected to lose roughly $1 billion in Europe this year, with many analysts thinking that loss could actually check in under that guidance. That thinking has since reversed, and as of today management believes Ford’s European operations will lose roughly $1.2 billion for 2014. Furthermore, rather than breaking even in the region next year, Ford now expects to lose roughly $250 million in 2015.
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br /Ford’s overseas pain doesn’t end in Europe, though, and South America is also expected to bring in larger than expected losses as well. Ford’s pain in South America continues as the region has had slower GDP growth with a slight recession expected in major markets in 2014 and 2015, before recovering. Also, high inflation and currency weakness will cause significant adjustments in Venezuela and Argentina. Ford now expects to incur losses of $1 billion in its South American operations for 2014.
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br /On top of Europe and South America operations turning out to be worse than anticipated, Ford’s warranty costs also ballooned more than expected. All in all, with updated guidance on those key factors, Ford’s 2014 pre tax profit estimates are going to be substantially lower than anticipated at the beginning of this year.
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br /Ford previously said would return to profitability in 2015, is now expected to lose about $250 million
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br /Ford Motor reported a first quarter profit down 39% from the same period last year to was $989 million , battered by higher warranty costs and South American currency losses.
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